Wii 2 rumors have been flying of late, and today the speculation reached a new high, based on multiple sources claiming that a new HD Nintendo console would be announced at E3. Many would argue that a new Nintendo console has been long overdue. The Wii's been declining in sales, software support has dried up, and the competition has better motion controllers. One analyst told IndustryGamers that Nintendo better launch a Wii successor by this fall/holiday or else.
Sterne Agee's Arvind Bhatia told us, "We are hearing the same thing [about a new Nintendo console] from our channel checks. I think Nintendo has to upgrade this Christmas, given how weak Wii sales have been. Launching this year means they will be able to protect their market share. Sony and Microsoft will probably still wait until 2013 to launch their next consoles," he said.
Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot recently called for all the platform holders to advance the cycle and upgrade as soon as possible. We agree with Bhatia, however, and feel that Microsoft and Sony will have at least 2 more years.
EEDAR's Jesse Divnich wouldn't be surprised to see a Wii 2 announcement at E3 either. He noted, "Nintendo originally announced the Wii at E3 in 2005, nearly 18 months before its official launch. It wouldn't be out of the question for Nintendo to announce some top-line specs on its new hardware. In terms of what does this mean for Nintendo? Unfortunately, not enough information exists to warrant any type of speculation, but rest assured Nintendo will continue to dedicate themselves to creating original hardware and software."
DFC Intelligence's David Cole doesn't think Nintendo will push things quickly enough to launch a successor this year, and he said that Nintendo might wait for sometime after E3 to announce. "In our forecasts for the industry we have a new console system from Nintendo launching second half of 2012. However, when it will be announced is another question. E3 could be a possibility but you also have to consider Nintendo's home turf is Japan and they may be more comfortable at a venue like TGS."
He continued, "Our new forecasts come out next month...if Nintendo announces a Wii 2 launch for 2011 we will have to go back to the drawing board real quick. We think the Wii is on the downward cycle of its life and sales will naturally decline every year. However, we still see Wii as the number one selling system in 2011. It will not be until 2012 that DFC forecasts Xbox 360 and PS3 sales will exceed Wii. As for Wii 2 we see it being a fairly successful system as consumers are really craving new hardware and Microsoft and Sony show no signs of delivering. We think it will be a strong seller but not nearly as strong as the Wii."
6 Comments
April 14, 2011
"We think it will be a strong seller but not nearly as strong as the Wii."
Well yeah. The Wii has been Nintendo's most successful console ever and the biggest part of that was the new motion controls and great word of mouth. I have no doubt their next console will do well and make them money from the start but I seriously doubt it's going to have the same lasting impact as the Wii has.
The Wii basically changed the game and forced it's competitors to add motion sensing to their consoles. But I have a feeling that the biggest changes to their newest console will be adding a hard drive and being capable of higher resolution graphics.
April 14, 2011
Well, it's difficult to really say how well a console might sell before you know little details like price, capabilities, and software... but clearly Nintendo is finally letting a little rumor-mongering happen. They're floating a trial balloon, in a totally deniable way, to gauge reactions. It must have finally sunk in that Wii sales (and third-party support) are on an irreversible downward trend. Price cuts will definitely help boost sales, but at the expense of profitability. And even with a price cut to $149 (and eventually to $99) I don't see third-party support recovering. There are too many other places for publishers to invest their development dollars.
I'd say an E3 announcement of a 2012 release date might seem early, but it would be good for Nintendo to get some excitement rolling early. Perhaps they felt this was necessary given the less-than-stellar response to the 3DS in the marketplace. I think they were hoping the 3DS would be such a huge hit they could take their time with a Wii successor. Now that it's clear the 3DS will not, by itself, save Nintendo's profits, they are starting to leak out info about a Wii successor to generate some excitement about Nintendo again.
April 15, 2011
Interesting, I was not sure Nintendo was going to get Wii2 out so far ahead of any thing from Sony or MS. But I know my Wii is not even connected right now and the PS3 and 360 are. I have only looked at one game on the Wii in the last 2 years and that was Golden Eye which I have not purchased yet as I have games on the PS3 and PC to play 1st.
April 15, 2011
It is not going to happen until next year. There has been very little in talk of software development unless its been very secretive. They still have Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, a Kirby game, and potential other announcements for E3 and TGS.
The other thing is that right now they need to focus on the 3DS. It would be splitting their market to try to have everybody buy both. That just won't happen. People can't afford it and it would eat into sales of each other. You concentrate on the 3DS and push it this year and then next year regroup with a focus on the next console.
April 18, 2011
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