Wii Cycle to 'Fade Meaningfully' in 2010, Aggressive Price Cuts Needed, says Analyst

yup...this makes plenty of sense....just like the last 3 yrs of this "fad for the wii and the touchscreen gimmick of the DS"... Its only natural that as the years go on and consoles get older the market becomes saturated and sales slow down with time... it happens with all consoles...

"James Brightman is a veteran games journalist with more than six years of experience. He was previously the EIC of GameDaily Biz"

Dear experienced games journalist. Did it not occur to you to even question or counter-balance the ramblings of this "analyst" given that mere weeks ago, the Wii sold almost as many units in one month as the PS3 did all year in the US market?

The Wii will almost certainly sell more than the Xbox 360 or PS3 this year – I'm so confident in that I'd almost put money on it. However, the system may have difficultly selling what it has in during its peak time the past couple years; this is more of an issue for Nintendo stock holders than anyone else.

The introduction of Natal and Sony Motion (Arc, whatever) are the wild card – will that tip the scales against the Wii? I'd say no; Nintendo's brand means a whole lot to families and it'll be tough to chip into that. Sony and Microsoft would have to drop the price of their consoles, package their motion controllers in standard and maybe include a pack in game -until then Nintendo will be sitting pretty.

Veteran game journalist huh... If you really knew what was going on you would know that there is a massive shortage of Wii's. (Do some research) The reason the numbers on them are down is the fact that there aren't any to sell. I work at a game store, you know the one. We haven't had a Wii (or Wii Fit) in stock in over 4 weeks. Easily 30 people a day come in or call asking if wee have any. I hear from customers that the story is the same at Target and Wall-mart. It is pretty much the same situation with PS3. Nintendo and Sony cannot keep up with demand. The price point on both systems is perfect. As for an install base... do you know how many Wii's are out there.. allot.(see I can be an annalist too) So Nintendo doesn't have much to worry about, especially as people are anticipating the rumored Wii HD.

Like ive been saying systems sales ALWAYS decline with passing years because the market becomes saturated and theres only so many consoles you can sell... As with the motion controls of Sony and Natal...David is right, The difference that nintendo has over sony and MS is that EVERY Wii owner gets a Wii Remote and nunch in every console sold. that makes all the difference i things wouldve been very different had it been an add on...If Sony and MS want to compete in the casual/motion space they need to package their respective peripherals with future console or in games Like nintendo has done with the Wii remote, Wii balance board and Wii motion plus so that publishers and devs cant ignore the product.

To the people talking about shortages, we in fact have covered that. We're fully aware that Nintendo is dealing with shortages. There are two possibilities on that front: 1) Either Nintendo is holding back on Wii shipments to create more shortage frenzy; or 2) They really screwed up their allocations, because shortages just shouldn't be a problem at this point.

I also agree with Anthony: the Wii market is automatically going to slow down because Nintendo has already sold a ton. That said, I feel the Wii market is governed by a very different set of circumstances. It's not at all like a traditional console, and it seems that its sales are now becoming much more seasonal, as opposed to 360 and PS3.

I'll ask this again in a different way; How come you can publish an article comprising of some seriously out there 'analyst' comments with absolutely no analysis as to whether they have any validity yet almost in the same breath speculate wildly as to why there might be Wii shortages?

(forgetting for a moment that such speculation ignores entirely feasible reasons like demand might be up or selling 3.8m the month before might have strained Nintendo, a company with a traditionally conservative outlook just slightly).

What prey would you suggest have caused PS3 shortages then despite "disappointing" as you put it sales during the same month?

"1) Either Nintendo is holding back on Wii shipments to create more shortage frenzy; or 2) They really screwed up their allocations, because shortages just shouldn't be a problem at this point."

Or 3) Demand went up. I suppose option three is out though, since it goes against the rest of your "analysis".

And what do you mean that Wii hardware will slow down because Nintendo has already sold a ton? What type of analysis is that? I'm going to try and use that on my economics test tomorrow. Demand for good X will plummet because they have already sold a ton. Can't be wrong, because I read an expert on the video game industry use that rationale :D.

And why does Wii need a price cut when it is still outselling PS3 and 360 consistently? Last I checked, you don't lower price when your facing a shortage, you lower your price when your overstocked and demand is drying up. And you actually want them to immediately drop the price to get a bigger installed base... when they're already facing a shortage, Amazing.

And what rationale are you using to determine that a Wii price cut would be effective? If they are having issues with supply at $200, why would they drop the price by $50? What would that do except shave revenue and profits? The $50 price drop Wii got only gave the system a short term boost. Sales only picked up after the launch of New Super Mario Bros Wii.

And probably the most amazing part of this analysis is how much weight is given to Sony's upcoming Arc and Microsoft's Natal. Third parties have had a very tough time selling to this "casual" audience. And they have had trouble even though Nintendo built them a massive installed base to work with. Third parties are responsible for the bulk of 360 and PS3 software sales. So why should we believe that these third parties will find success on these other systems when they couldn't sell well on the Wii with it's massive installed base?

One thing that has been shown to be true on the Wii: Software drives hardware. This is why the same titles for Wii stay in or hover around the top 10 best-selling games each month, and this is also why Wii has outsold 360 and PS3 since it was launched. Now I wonder again, if third parties are responsible for the bulk of 360 and PS3 software sales, who do you think will be expected to lead this "casual charge"? Right, the third parties, who have a sketchy track record with this audience at best.

This analysis is poorly done. Even the conclusion was awful. "We expect 3rd party publishers could benefit significantly over the emerging casual cycle, as their prior experience at the casual market was often tortuous from Nintendo’s software domination."

What is the logic here? Why would you reason that third parties can sell to this new market when they couldn't do so on Wii? It can't be just brand recognition, because this new audience doesn't even buy everything Nintendo puts out. Wii Music and Animal Crossing were relative failures compared to the reception of Wii's blockbuster/system-seller titles.

Quite a disappointing analysis. I won't be coming back here for anymore "insight" into this industry if this is what I have to look forward to. I think I'm better off doing my own homework.

This isn't so much about the recent holiday surge Nintendo benefited from so much as it is looking at the tea leaves as trying to predict how things will change in the coming year. The recent success I would attribute primarily to two things: the price cut and New Super Mario Bros. Wii.

What Mike Hickey is trying to glean is how the Wii will fair over the coming year – in January, the Wii was the best selling console but it was notably down 200,000 units compared to last year. There's a strong line up of titles coming to the PS3/Xbox 360, but even with that I'm not sure if it's necessary for Nintendo to consider a price cut until later in 2010 if somehow Natal and Arc look to take Nintendo's marketshare, but as I said before, I'm not sure that'll happen. I think the only thing that will prompt a new price cut is if Wii hardware sales dip below the PS3/Xbox 360 again, like it did last August.

Wii is like Facebook. Many people resist at first, and then eventually succumb.
Zenerx Reviews

It's sad to see so many "informed" people proclaiming and seeming to revel in Nintendo's failure. But honestly, it's not unexpected. When you are a successful disruptor, you are a threat to the status quo and so there is significant resistance. The enormous and continued success of the Wii defies the logic of the establishment and they still can't fathom it's success. Many "core" gamers can't either. Sad.

Too bad this "analyst" didn't look at the numbers that show Wii sales are second only to it's release month over three years ago. NSMBW has sold about 11 million copies in just three months. Nitnendo held 5 slots of the latest top 10 games sales NPD chart. Yea, they're hurting real bad.

lol, this article has been rendered woefully out of touch and laughable at best with all the announcements made at Nintendo's E3 press conference. It's funny how much things can change in 5 months, yeah? My friend and I, who grew up loving Nintendo, are both planning on getting Wiis this holiday season. After they've announced the release of a Goldeneye 007 remake and a new Donkey Kong Country, it was pretty much a no-brainer. And of course there's plenty of other great games like New SMB Wii, Mario Galaxy 2, Smash Bros Brawl, Mario Kart, the Zelda titles, Metroid: Other M, and even more on the horizon. If there was ever a good time to buy a Wii, it's now. And I don't think I even have to get into the 3DS...