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The Divnich Debrief: Why PlayStation Move Will Succeed

Posted March 22, 2010 by Jesse Divnich

At Sony’s unveiling of the PlayStation Move at GDC, I had the chance to participate in many press interviews and after the cameras stopped rolling and the tape recorders turned off, some commented on how I was perhaps the most positive about the PlayStation Move compared to others they interviewed. In some cases, I actually felt I had to defend my position, which is why this Divnich Debrief is dedicated to why the PlayStation Move will succeed. 

There's no doubt that the PlayStation Move works in a synonymous manner to another console’s motion based controller; even Sony has acknowledged (and congratulated) Nintendo for their success in this space. However, many knocked the PlayStation Move for being a near blue-print copy (with some extra bells and whistles) of current industry standards. My response to that is, “Who cares?”

Our entire industry is based upon conformity and it has been that way for over 20 years. The Xbox played DVDs just like the PlayStation 2; the Xbox controller closely resembled the same scheme as the PlayStation 2, which was originally designed after the PlayStation 1 controller; Sega and Nintendo went back and forth for years in the 16-bit and 32-bit days; PlayStation 3 incorporated Netflix, only after the Xbox 360 did it first; Trophies and Achievements; Guitar Hero and Rock Band; Medal of Honor and Call of Duty; Dante and Kratos; and the list goes on. The point is, there is nothing wrong with replicating another’s successful original idea, as long as you evolve that idea, which is what I believe the PlayStation Move is doing.

The PlayStation Move is going to allow developers to immerse gamers into a world that simply is not possible on the Wii. The Wii is an impressive console, but it can never deliver lifelike graphics like those found on rival consoles. MadWorld and No More Heroes are clear examples of how developers, who wish to target the mature audience, must do so at the limitations of the Wii, which typically result in cartoonish style environments. Unfortunately, as gamers we simply are not buying it (figuratively and literally).

I fully enjoyed Ping Pong with the Wii MotionPlus, but there was an additional element of excitement playing nearly the same game on the PlayStation Move. The PS3 version removed the Miis and had richer graphics, and it just felt more mature; it felt like something I wouldn’t be embarrassed playing when my friends come over, which is why my favorite feature of the PlayStation Move has nothing to do with the peripheral itself, but rather the console it is designed for. And that is one of the reasons the PlayStation Move will succeed, because it does evolve motion based gaming – maybe not from a technical perspective, but it certainly allows developers to introduce motion based gaming into environments not capable on the Wii.

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Jesse Divnich is the VP of Analyst Services at Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR). He's been an industry analyst for over 7 years.  All views and opinions are that of Mr. Divnich and not necessarily the views of EEDAR or its clients.


17 Comments

James A. More
March 22, 2010

So Move will beat Wii just because Sony is Sony? I humbly disagree.

If people were embarrassed about Mii's, then why is the Wii the best selling console on the market today?

This article is based on pure fanboyism, and does not show professionalism. I am disappointed.

However, the tech behind Move is promising, and could bring elements only found on the Wii to the PS3.

But I can't see Move selling well enough for game makers to care. It's going to be the Super Scope or Power Glove of this generation. Sony should have waited and bundled Move 2.0 with PS4.

James Brightman
March 22, 2010

I wouldn't call it fanboyism. Jesse's quite professional and he's entitled to his opinion. I'm not really in agreement with him on this one. In fact, I'm still somewhat skeptical about both Natal and Move. I'm not convinced that just because Wii has sold like hotcakes that motion control represents the future, nor am I convinced that motion control tacked onto PS3 and Xbox 360 halfway (or more) through their lifecycles is a formula for success.

GameboyHippo
March 22, 2010

Embarrassed to play with a Mii? You have issues. I don't know about you, but I'd be embarrassed to play some of these more "Mature" titles. I mean, could you imagine the embarrassment of your daughter walking in while playing an embarrassing game like Bayonetta. "Uh, I don't know why her privates are glowing, sweetheart."

But I digress. When I saw PS Move Sports, I thought "BORING"! Don't get me wrong. I enjoy the two games worth playing on the PS3. But PS Move Sports totally "uncanny vallied" my way back to Wii Sports Resort! But let's imagine that I didn't own a PS3 already. Why would I want to fork out $400 minimum to enjoy a less fun version of Wii Sports?

Joe Loporcaro
March 22, 2010

This analyst should consider something...

Nintendo games don't succeed because of motion control. They succeed because the entirety of their product resonates with the (global) audience.

Nintendo has proven that, this generation, simply upping screen resolution and polygon counts no longer resonates with gamers. It's not a bad thing, and higher def is always better than lower def. But gaming is growing beyond technophiles and into the lives of the mainstream.

The mainstream thinks, buys and plays based on what engages them. Not like this: "720 > 480."

In addition, as much as the people who DO think that way would like to believe that Sony/MS are gonna do motion control but somehow "keep it real, unlike Nintendo"? Sorry, that's not the way big business works. At least, not in Sony's case. That's why the hardware is a near mirror image and the software borders on intellectual property infringement.

So go on ... keep telling yourself that the Wii is a fad - that Wii owners aren't really playing games, let alone enjoying them. Keep telling yourself that those millions of gamers have just been holding their breath for an HD (and more expensive) version of the same experience...

But ultimately, unless Sony can put Nintendo's lightning in a bottle (come up with software that makes this hardware resonate with audiences), then you're just gonna have to keep moving back the goal post for a few more years.

Poopywalk
March 22, 2010

http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2010/03/23/analyst-says-why-move-will-be-a-success/

TomAvas
March 22, 2010

Personally, I agree. It will sell a well amount at retail, but won't be looked at as a game changing device. I think it all comes down to what we consider "commercially successful". 1 million? 5 million? 10 million units?

To Mr. Moore, the Wii is the best selling console, but is among the least played. Any gamer will tell you that (and I've seen many surveys indicating such.)

I don't want to agree with Divnich, but if his only conclusion is that the move will be commercially successful, he is probably right.

TheQuickBrownFox
March 23, 2010

The graphics in Wii Sports Resort are not the limit of the Wii's capabilities and are not designed to push the Wii. Nintendo did not even aim for photorealism, since attempted photorealism does not sell. Therefore the removing of graphical limitations with the Move is largely meaningless in the context of the wider market, though it will help the smaller traditional gamer market get into motion controls. This may shift enough units for the Move to be considered a success depending on your expectations.

In the comments people suggest that since the Wii has the least play time (on average per console I presume) this invalidates the success in terms of hardware and software sales. This assumes that success requires that your customers have gaming as their primary hobby rather than just one source of entertainment among others. Clearly absurd.

David Radd
March 23, 2010

Fanboys always tend to see things in fanboy extremes - Jesse is an analyst that happens to like the Move, that's all.

I think Move is a neat little technology, but it's got an uphill battle to face. There are market forces (high install base of the Wii, price, not a pack in with the PS3, etc) that will make it difficult for it to achieve a high level of penetration. I also haven't seen anything software wise that will necessitate an “upgrade” or change the world of motion control as well know it.

The market that Nintendo has gone after with the Wii is pretty different than the main fanbase of the PS3/Xbox 360 – it'll be hard for them to capture that mindshare that Nintendo already has, but Sony and Microsoft are sure going to try.

Brian Woods
March 23, 2010

Let's remember that 2D controllers are for 2D worlds. If/when a good 3D game is released for the PS3 (and I have every reason to believe that Sony is working their asses off on one), the Move will separate itself.

Brian Woods
March 23, 2010

Let's remember that 2D controllers are for 2D worlds. If/when a good 3D game is released for the PS3 (and I have every reason to believe that Sony is working their asses off on one), the Move will separate itself.

yeahyeah
March 23, 2010

@David Radd

More like Jesse is a fanboy that happens to be an analyst. His nonsense is exposed here:

http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2010/03/23/analyst-says-why-move-will-be-a-success/

THE 1 2 P
March 23, 2010

Interesting article Jesse. I'm fairly certain that the PS3 Move will not upseat the Wii or give Sony that big of an advantage over the 360 but theres definitely a possibility for some engaging gaming experiences.

From the outside it obviously looks like Sony is blatingly copying Nintendo(and they are) and basically saying that they can make motion controls better. But now they have to prove it. And they will get their chance this fall. I don't know how well either Move or Natal will perform once they hit retail but we will get a glimsp of that future at E3 once we see some of the launch games for both.

David Radd
March 23, 2010

Ah, I see. If you like Move, that means you're a fanboy and probably like to hurt puppies in your free time as well.

yeahyeah
March 24, 2010

@David Radd

Says who?

I just pointed out that he is a fanboy, and that his arguments are flawed. And I linked to an article which shows exactly how.

Nice red herring, though.

TomAvas
March 24, 2010

@yeahyeah

you must be some type of idiot? Have you read Divnich's articles? I've seen him bash the Wii, Sony, iPhone, Xbox. I would HARDLY even use the term fanboy.

Have you read your own article? It it no way concludes that he is a fanboy. And who uses the word "fanboy" anyways?

I am reserving my judgment for when the sales come in. Until that day, you should too.

yeahyeah
March 25, 2010

It isn't my article, but it clearly shows how this "analysis" is garbage.

David Radd
March 26, 2010

I really wish I had free time like that blogger. You can disagree, but calling someone a "fanboy" of the bat doesn't help your argument and it just simple isn't true in this case.




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