IndustryGamers - Informing the Games Industry

The Divnich Debrief: Roadblocks in the Music Genre

Posted July 20, 2009 by Jesse Divnich

For franchises in other genres, a publisher may stagger releases over the course of many years to keep gameplay and its core features fresh, like for instance the Grand Theft Auto (GTA) franchise; however, DDR, unlike GTA, had a style of gameplay that most developers could replicate in a rather short period. 

Do not get me wrong; I am not trying to slight the creative minds at Konami, as I liken the creation of DDR to that of the wheel, but that is the problem.  When the wheel was first invented, it was a breakthrough for humankind (as DDR was a breakthrough for gaming) and it probably brought some cave dweller great commercial success.  The success was alas, only for a short period, as once others realized the simplicities of such an invention, all began to create their own.  DDR faced the same problems and witnessed a slew of competitors eating away at its 100% market share.  Konami had no choice but to bombard consumers with semi-annual releases – if they did not, others would (and did).  Konami made the most out of DDR – there is no doubt about that – but it is true that the brand and style of gameplay reached an apex much sooner than what other franchises would have outside the music and rhythm genre. 

The Guitar Hero franchise is no different, and graphing their quality scores over time presents an uncanny resemblance to that of DDR.

Of course, it would be wrong to fault any publisher for milking as much success out of their respected products as possible.  There is little choice to be made; when you have games that possess a low ceiling for lifetime feature improvement one needs to strike when the iron is hot.

The aforementioned analytics identify one key fact: the music and rhythm genre is being monetized more closely in terms of a pop-culture fad with heavy SKU plans that focus on content over features.  Maybe Guitar Hero and Rock Band need not necessarily be considered declining franchises, but rather franchises that experienced unusually aggressive early growth.  Where sustained/continuous growth may generate $50 million in profitability over a ten-year span, aggressive growth would achieve the same result, but in a compacted period; in this case, five years.   

Nevertheless, herein lies the heart of the article: it would be erroneous to assume that any franchise or brand can grow unless it brings something new to the table. After a while, utility to the gamer will diminish and he/she will surely move on. Does this spell the end for Guitar Hero and Rock Band? Certainly not. DDR, which peaked years ago, still manages to push over a million copies a year.  In addition, many sport-based games reached a plateau feature-wise years ago and still make enormous revenues.   

However, with the music category already down 30% year-to-date, worldwide, it is tough to present any compelling arguments that would suggest the category would grow by the end of the 2009 – even with impressive titles like The Beatles Rock Band and DJ Hero.  Nonetheless, even if DJ Hero and The Beatles propel the respective series forward, as both are looking to be strong commercial successes, one still has to ask, where do we go from there? If anyone has the answer, you can bet it will surely come from the brilliant minds at Harmonix, who coincidently just announced—as I am finishing this article—a new feature that will allow independent musicians to release custom uploaded tracks through the Rock Band Network.

Jesse Divnich is the VP of Analyst Services at Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR). He's been an industry analyst for over 7 years.  All views and opinions are that of Mr. Divnich and not necessarily the views of EEDAR or its clients.