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The Divnich Debrief: Publishers Stacking Fiscal Ending Months

Posted March 1, 2010 by Jesse Divnich

Of course, all of the above is moot if packing these quarters didn’t impact us gamers. And while I could list dozens of examples of this occurring, I only need to look to the release slate for March 2010 to prove my point.

March 2010 Release Slate 

God of War III (Sony)

Final Fantasy XIII (Square)

Battlefield Bad Company 2 (EA)

MLB’10: The Show (Sony)

Just Cause 2 (Square/Eidos)

Pokemon Silver/Gold (Nintendo)

Yakuza 3 (Sega)

Red Steel 2 (UbiSoft)

Grand Theft Auto : ELC (Take-Two)


Of the nine AAA games set to release in March 2010, eight of them come from companies with a financial quarter ending in March. Are these companies doing a disservice to us gamers? Yes! And I’d argue that true gamers can look at March’s release schedule and easily pick out at least three games ($180) that they will probably purchase. I hope you filed your tax returns by now, because you’ll need that refund just to survive the month!

The only company from that list that does not follow a standard financial filing period is Take-Two, which leads me to two fine examples of companies putting gamers first and investors second.

First, Take-Two, whose fiscal quarters run January, April, July, and October and despite pressure to “conform” to the industry standard, they chose to be an outlier among the major publishers. Of course, they are just as guilty as anyone else for packing major releases into their month-ending quarters (ALL GTAs have been released in a month-ending quarter for Take-Two), but at least pressure from the financial sector will do little to impact us gamers.

Second is Electronic Arts, whose fiscal year runs identical to most publishers; however, last year EA introduced a new policy. No more quarterly guidance. They would tell investors what they planned on releasing, but would not give a quarterly guidance on revenue. Instead, investors only got a yearly revenue/profit guidance. The reason? Exactly what was discussed in this article, Electronic Arts did not want to feel pressure to release games only to appeal to investors (not their customers). The results are clear as EA released a major AAA title, Mass Effect 2, in January (the month that sees the fewest released games!), which went on to sell-in over 2 million units in just a few weeks becoming the best selling January release of all-time.

And while publishers have finally warmed up to releasing AAA releases outside of the holiday season, the consequential result looks to be more congestion in March, June, and September. I guess we just need to pick our poison?

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Jesse Divnich is the VP of Analyst Services at Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR). He's been an industry analyst for over 7 years.  All views and opinions are that of Mr. Divnich and not necessarily the views of EEDAR or its clients.


4 Comments

Raider1981
March 2, 2010

Wow. Great article. Now that publishers can see this (I hope they read this article), I wonder if that will change?

What is interesting is the converse of your argument. If it is not a coincidence that publishers stack the March/June/Sept months, than the same can be said about Jan-April-July. Those months have the fewest releases. If i was a developer/publisher, I would start stacking the July month.

James Brightman
March 2, 2010

Yeah, Jesse really dug into the data on this one, good stuff.

David Lee
March 2, 2010

Public companies may see lower sales to gamers at retail if they squeeze titles in to make the quarter, but they can book the revenue from sales to retailers immediately, thus making their quarterly revenue numbers look better. They may be shooting themselves in the foot with regard to the longterm health of their franchises, but when it comes to stock price vs. longterm strategy in my experience publishers are more likely to worry about the stock price.

TokiG
March 2, 2010

Agreed. This is a pretty awesome analysis. Certainly explains why I plan on going broke this month. And it is not just the money. It's the time. Battlefield, Final Fantasy, Pokemon. Three games that offer +40 hr game play all being released within weeks of each other.




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