IndustryGamers - Informing the Games Industry

Red Dead Redemption Could Sell 4 Million in First Year, says Analyst

Posted May 17, 2010 by James Brightman

Rockstar's Red Dead Redemption ships this week, and the marketing has really picked up in recent weeks. We've seen the TV ads on different channels literally everyday for some time now. The folks at Rockstar and Take-Two have huge expectations for the game, calling it their "most ambitious game to date."

Cowen group analyst Doug Creutz said today that the title could sell about 4 million copies in its first year; that's up from his initial estimate of 2.2 million because of "very strong pre-order demand." Creutz believes it's a title poised for "breakout success." Publisher Take-Two Interactive has regularly been criticized for not being profitable in its non-GTA years, so the company is pinning its hopes on Red Dead Redemption.

While Creutz is fairy optimistic, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter told us weeks ago that he's not so sure Red Dead Redemption qualifies as "blockbuster" material. Pachter expects sales to be in the range of 2-3 million vs. Creutz's 4 million. 

Pachter commented at the time, "I’m sure that the quality of Red Dead Redemption is extraordinary, and I expect the game to garner review scores of around 90.  Whether the game is a blockbuster franchise will depend upon whether the game resonates with a large segment of the market.  The trick in getting a game to sell a lot of units is not as simple as saying it will be a blockbuster.  Rather, the game has to be great (likely), has to appeal to a large potential audience (questionable), and has to have solid marketing support (likely).  I suppose that you can see where I’m going—I am not sure that a game set in the late 19th century has tremendous mass appeal.  I would have said the same for Assassin’s Creed, Prince of Persia, God of War, Dante’s Inferno and any other 'period' pieces, yet most of these sold quite well.  My bias is that a game that is set in the U.S. West will not be particularly appealing to European audiences, and a game where the most powerful weapon is a Gatling gun will not be particularly appealing to U.S. audiences.  With that said, I suppose that the game could sell 2 – 3 million units with a review score of 85 or more and solid marketing, and that’s what I’ve modeled it to sell.  I remain skeptical that the game will be considered a “blockbuster franchise,” and certainly do not expect sales to rival those of GTA."

James Brightman has been covering the games industry since 2003 and has been an avid gamer ever since the days of Atari and Intellivision. He was previously the EIC of GameDaily Biz.