2012 might not be a console launch year besides the Wii U, but it does mark the start of the next-generation handheld race. This year might be particularly important, as both Sony and Nintendo have pushed two rather impressive pieces of technology out for the masses. That race might even be rather significant, says analyst firm International Data Corporation.
"Especially given the 3DS price drop in mid-2011 and in light of respectable initial demand for Vita in Japan this past December, it appears that 2012 is shaping up to be a rebound year for dedicated handhelds," says Lewis Ward, IDC's research manager for gaming. "It's absolutely true that a mind-boggling number of games have been downloaded to iOS- and Android-powered devices in the past year, but only a fraction of those games were paid for and most of those were of the $1 to $3 variety."
Essentially, the firm believes that such hardware is going to make a big impact on consumers thanks to the growing social gaming trend.
"An interesting piece of this story is what's happening demographically," adds Ward. "The penetration rate of paying gamers is much higher in the child and teen segment for dedicated handhelds than it is for cell phone or media tablet gamers. As long as dedicated handheld OEMs and physical format portable game developers/publishers can hold serve in the demographic niches where they currently have a substantial advantage, I expect their revenue opportunities moving forward to remain substantial."
Interestingly, while IDC forecasts that worldwide dedicated handheld, cell phone, media tablet video game software revenue will rise from $14.7 billion in 2012 to a little over $20 billion in 2015, the overall revenue split between dedicated handhelds and phones/tablets is forecast to move in the direction of phones/tablets by less than 4% in this period.
"Mobile and portable gaming is clearly a positive industry growth area," Ward says. "Since weak macroeconomic conditions are likely to prevail in many key advanced industrial nations over the next few years, much of this growth will likely occur in BRIC nations and a handful of other emerging economies, and be more casual/social cell phone gaming oriented."
