Nintendo Wii U: 5 Major Challenges to OvercomeThere's a hard and fast rule in the gaming world: Never bet against Nintendo. That's still true, despite the Wii's ugly tumble from the top and the underwhelming rollout of the 3DS – but if you're a gambler, this might be the time to hedge those bets.
The Wii U, Nintendo's own next big wager, is likely still more than a year away from hitting stores, but the number of hurdles it's going to have to clear in order for it to be a success are growing at an alarming rate.
None are certain death-knells, but when they combine, they could present an obstacle that's formidable enough to keep Nintendo's stock from shaking off the doldrums that have plagued it through 2011. (Year-to-date, Nintendo shares are down roughly 50 percent.)
Here are five challenges the company will have to overcome if it wants the Wii U to be a smash hit.
Xbox 360/PS3 momentum – While the console offerings by Microsoft and Sony lagged behind the Wii for the first five years of this generation, they've hit their stride over the last year or so and are showing no signs of slowing down.
Sony has bounced back from this year's security breach, boasting what is arguably this year's strongest holiday software lineup. PlayStation Network subscriptions are on the rise and gamers are excited about what the company has in the pipeline.
Microsoft, meanwhile, has a new Halo trilogy kicking off next year and is the go-to console for most Call of Duty players. It also has a solid line-up for holiday 2011, with Gears of War 3, Forza 4 and Halo Anniversary leading the charge.
More importantly, the companies' early bet on high definition graphics has panned out, meaning they both have an enormous catalog of HD titles. Nintendo will have some catch-up to do – and while Zelda in HD is an exciting prospect, many other franchises, including Mario, seem less likely to benefit noticeably from the upgrade.
The rumor mill – The whispers of next generation machines from Microsoft and Sony are already making the rounds. They might be true. They could be wishful fanboy thinking. But the mere thought of an imminent next generation could be enough to dissuade some of the core gaming community from picking up a Wii U.
That's critical, since the core is where the money is these days in gaming. The mass audience that made the Wii such an overwhelming success is in the process of migrating to other gaming platforms, such as the iPhone.
Remember, in the game industry, like the television industry, the battle is ultimately one for people's time. And the Kindle Fire seems poised to offer plenty of ways to occupy people's time."
Should Microsoft or Sony begin talking about their next generation systems at E3 next year, it's going to be a major blow to Nintendo – since the Wii U, to many people, looks a lot like an attempt to catch up with the current generation offerings from those companies.
And even if there is no talk of the next generation, the rumors are only going to grow louder before the Wii U's launch.
The iPad threat – It's no secret that a new iPad is right around the corner. And the advances Apple has made with its popular tablet have made it a very popular gaming platform.
The Wii U is not a tablet and makes no claims as such. It does, however, share the same form factor -- and appearances can be crucial. Casual observers are likely to compare the two products in their head and while the Wii U will almost certainly be less expensive than the iPad (even the cheapest model of that device), the big question is: Will it have the same "cool" factor?
If not – and if the iPad 3 blends the Retina display with a pumped-up graphics engine, as is expected to be among the improvements – the iPad could be a big drag on the Wii U's sales.
The price war – If there was one thing Nintendo needed to take away from the Wii it was that price matters. By placing the console within the reach of the mass audience from day one, the company ensured at least initial success. The launch price of the 3DS raised doubts on whether that lesson was, in fact, learned though.
The battering that handheld system took in the months after launch (and the embarrassing need to slash prices immediately) likely reminded Nintendo of the need for low pricing. So let's give it the benefit of the doubt and say the Wii U comes in at or below $250.
But the launch of the Amazon Kindle Fire blends the tablet and pricing threats into an ugly beast. $199 for a system that offers plenty of snack gaming options (courtesy of the Android Marketplace) along with the vast Amazon film and book libraries is a serious threat. And it's possibly one Nintendo wasn't counting on.
Remember, in the game industry, like the television industry, the battle is ultimately one for people's time. And the Kindle Fire seems poised to offer plenty of ways to occupy people's time.
The stigma – While the Wii has had some tremendous games, it's been a long while since Nintendo put out a title that the core gaming community labeled a "must have".
Many gamers have started to lose faith in the house that Mario built – or, worse, begun to feel they've outgrown the company. This is a hurdle that Nintendo can overcome with the least difficulty, given its deep talent pool of developers. But overcoming this problem alone won't mean smooth sailing for the Wii U.
