Modern Warfare 2 to Top All Games in '09 with Over 11 Million Sold, says Analyst

Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare was a massive hit for Activision, having sold over 13 million copies to date. Activision Publishing CEO Mike Griffith already told IndustryGamers that the sequel will likely be the best selling title in the franchise yet when it ships this November. Now Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey has weighed in, noting that he thinks Modern Warfare 2 will sell through 11.1 million copies this calendar year, generating huge revenues for the Activision Blizzard behemoth. 

“We believe Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 will likely be the largest video game release for CY09,” he said. “For the Company’s fiscal Q409 period (Dec. ending), we anticipate the sell through to consumers of 11.1 million units for an estimated retail value of $803 million and sell-in approximating 12.4 million units for an approximated sales value of $666 million (we assume demand is 90% of supply).”

Hickey noted that the combined Xbox 360 and PS3 installed base for U.S. and Europe has grown by about 125% and 200%, respectively, since Modern Warfare’s November ’07 release, “ushering in a remarkably larger market opportunity for Modern Warfare 2.”

He continued, “Ultimately, speed through the channel will be dependent on pre-orders, game quality, game buzz, competitive offerings, game supply and willingness of consumers to spend.  We expect management is exceedingly focused on building pre-orders given the potential for retailer sensitivity over initial holiday buys.  We are already seeing international promotional activity for pre-orders and recent indications from the domestic channel suggest meaningful pre-order builds relative to the game’s distant release date.  

“Given our CY09 sell through estimates for Modern Warfare 2, it’s possible that the game could be one of the largest entertainment releases of all time.  If you assume similar channel unit sales velocity as GTA IV, the game could potentially sell through 7.8 million units globally with an estimated retail value of more than $569 million in the first week.  Continuing the same channel logic, it’s possible the game could sell through to consumers’ 4.6 million units globally with an estimated retail value of more than $338 million in the first day.  We believe they would need 3.2 million pre-orders (1.13 mill from Europe and 2.10 mill from US) to hit 4.6 million first day unit sales.”