In advance of publisher Take-Two's third-quarter fiscal report this Thursday, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter has noted that the company's U.S. retail sales appear to be tracking ahead by 250% thanks mostly to Rockstar's Red Dead Redemption, which he believes has hit 6.5 million units sold (5 million was the last confirmed number by Take-Two).
While Red Dead Redemption has been fantastic for Take-Two, it's been another story for Mafia II. "Mafia II’s average Metacritic score of 74 is well below expectations, and consumer interest appears to be waning, as the game’s position has dropped in many best-seller lists in its first week. With six years in development, we believe the game is unlikely to achieve profitability," Pachter said.
Pachter also hinted at more game delays, which he believes are ultimately hurting the company. "Game delays have become the norm at Take-Two, and we expect the company to announce a shift in release dates for LA Noire out of 2010 and into 2011," he said. "This follows last quarter’s announcement of a similar delay for Max Payne 3. It is important to note that both games have been in development for longer than five years, making their break even hurdles significantly higher than a typical game. We do not expect any news about the next GTA game, though we still believe it could be released by Holiday 2011."
It's starting to look like consumers (and investors) who are ravenous for the next Grand Theft Auto won't be seeing GTA V until 2012.
He continued, "Once the company can demonstrate a path to consistent profitability, we will become more constructive. With longer development cycles, Take-Two has a profitability threshold higher than its peers. We believe that the company must focus on streamlining its development process and providing better visibility on future game releases. Despite a multitude of recent game announcements, Take-Two’s share price has taken a battering recently, reflecting investor disappointment that there has been no update on the next Grand Theft Auto, which appears to have potentially slipped to 2012."
3 Comments
August 30, 2010
It is a tough call. When you get a success like RDR, it is hard to argue against it. But long dev times to seriously make the risks much greater. At least 2K Czech shouldn't be too expensive since they are based in Eastern Europe. But Mafia 2 was a bit of a let-down compared to the critically acclaimed Mafia for the PC.
September 1, 2010
the things the need to be better on gta 5 is have it like San Andreas, it doesnt matter 2 much about the character. How about more old skool car and new models car, but when u steal give us a game the that would take about 3 to 4 months 2 beat. Let the main character have better lines, conversion,fighting styles,more people lookin different on the same block or street. But I liked it when yall brought the black guy into play on San Andreas if u put another black on it give them the main character more options like options should they kill a certain the person on the game, fix your car was fun yall should put that in the new game. The thing it new is a funny stroy line or a main character,please add more tattos, clothes, places to go, guns plane boats, gang, customation,blood.Never mind what i said about the character he should be black but more of a thug. Since the gta china town war with sell drugs buying and using the and getting and high like how saints row did it. Even with the two door car if their 4 seat leat everbody ride or just get their own car and follow you the location. Just add that and a little bit from gta 4 and the fun things you can do gta 4.
September 1, 2010
I bought M2, was average, could have been improved in a lot of areas. Go Max Payne 3! Dunno if it would sell well but I'd buy it. GTA will always make money.