IndustryGamers - Informing the Games Industry

Madden Sales Down 'At Least 10%' But Should Rebound Next Year, says EEDAR

Posted September 8, 2009 by James Brightman

Every year, EA's Madden franchise rakes in big money for the publisher. This year shouldn't be much different, although sales so far seem to be tracking behind last year's edition. According to the folks at EEDAR, Madden NFL 10 should see a sales decline "by at least 10% compared to last year’s title."  Analyst Jesse Divnich cited the following as the main reasons for the drop off:

• No special editions in 2010 (Madden 2009 had a 20^th Anniversary special edition).
• No PSP hardware bundle.  Last year’s Madden was included in a PSP hardware bundle.
• Absence of a Nintendo DS SKU.
• Lower hardware install base over expectations.
• The removal of the “All-Play” logo from the Wii SKU.  This could have hindered sales to the casual/non-traditional markets.
• Sports Illustrated offer giving new subscribers Madden NFL 10 for $49.99. Each sale would not be counted through brick and mortar retail sales.

Even with the lower sales, EEDAR points out that Madden remains way ahead of the NCAA Football franchise, which declined by over 20% this year.  "EEDAR continues to believe that the lower install base among the core next-generation consoles is the primary reason for the decline in Madden sales and is not any indication that the brand or series may be stagnating," stressed Divnich. "In fact, even after 20 years, the series continues to introduce innovative features such as an online co-op and franchise mode.  Anyone believing that the decrease in sales is somehow due to the lack of effort from Electronic Arts Tiburon, need simply to observe the review scores of the Madden franchise over the last five years, which has consistently posted scores in the mid 80’s."

With many consumers expected to make the leap to high-end consoles like PS3 and Xbox 360 this holiday (thanks to lower pricing), EEDAR's anticipating that these people will be primed and ready for the next Madden a year from now, leading to a nice sales uptick. Divnich commented, "Additionally, EEDAR believes that the shift in popularity to the Wii and its unique controller design has changed the taste of many core consumers.  Consumers, who once owned a PlayStation 2 and were avid Madden fans, may now have a different preference in their gaming appetite if they have transitioned to the Wii instead of the PlayStation 3 or Xbox 360.  With the recent PlayStation 3 price cut and the new Xbox 360 hardware line-up, we expect many consumers, who are in next-generation limbo, to make the jump to a PlayStation 3 or Xbox 360 between now and August 2010, which should produce a series-over-series increase for the Madden franchise in 2010." 

"EEDAR continues to believe that Madden will still post large revenues and profit for Electronic Arts. Any decline in sales should not undercut the fact that the Madden franchise is and will continue to be incredibly popular among the core video game market. According to EEDAR’s GamePulse database, the Madden series remains the second largest franchise, in terms of retail dollars, among all franchises since 2000. For reference, Guitar Hero is the largest; Grand Theft Auto a distant third."

James Brightman has been covering the games industry since 2003 and has been an avid gamer ever since the days of Atari and Intellivision. He was previously the EIC of GameDaily Biz.