With sales down in 2009 and the rise of new distribution mediums on mobile phones and social networks, many wondered if we were witnessing the beginning of the end of traditional game publishing. Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz, however, doesn't foresee the death of consoles in the immediate future.
"Notably, we reject the notion that competition from non-traditional video gaming formats such as the iPhone and social gaming have significantly impacted the traditional console cycle," said Creutz to Gamasutra. "We believe that these newer gaming media represent a distinct and non-competitive market segment from console gaming, which is dominated by the core gamer."
Creutz thinks that 2009 was a result of the natural cycle of the console industry and that now the PS3 and Xbox 360 will truly come to the forefront.
"While the Wii and the music genre helped grow the market beyond the traditional core gamer during 2007-08, casual gamers appear to have backed away from video games during 2009 (in part due to the recession), which drove the majority of the overall sales decline," the analyst noted. "Sales of core gamer titles (those that were actually released on time) remained strong during 2009 despite economic weakness.”
"With Xbox 360 and especially PS3 prices now entering the mass market range, we believe that the cycle will re-accelerate to the benefit of the publishers that are positioned to take advantage," concludes Creutz.
A Capcom executive recently said that the PS3 and Xbox 360 are the company's “future” while Ubisoft talked about a “concentration on AAA titles" rather than casual titles. Alex St. John, however, is a big believer in new digital media and recently talked to IndustryGamers about how consoles are an anomaly destined to die.
