iPhone 5 Could Reshape GamingThe iPhone 5 is arriving soon, according to the rumors reaching a fever pitch around the industry. The consensus seems to be an announcement will occur in the next few weeks, with shipments in October. Whatever the exact specs of the new iPhone are, it's going to have a major impact on the gaming industry.
Here's what we can be pretty sure of in an iPhone 5: It will have a faster processor (most likely the A5 being used in the iPad 2) and a larger screen (perhaps 3.7” or 4”, though some say it will be the same size). It will probably be thinner, or lighter, or have a longer battery life than the current iPhone, or perhaps all of those attributes. It will probably cost about the same as the current iPhone 4 pricing ($199 or $299 with 2-year contract). The iPhone 5 will be available for AT&T and Verizon, and perhaps add in Sprint and T-Mobile.
Overshadowing consoles
The most important feature for the game industry is one you won't find on the spec sheet: the sales. RBC Capital Markets is estimating that 4th quarter iPhone sales (Apple's 1st Quarter of their fiscal year) will be 27 million units, up from the previous estimate of 24.4 million. They are also estimating 110 million iPhones will be sold in fiscal 2012. In other words, more than 9 million iPhones will be sold per month, or approximately 30 times as many units as Microsoft is selling of the Xbox 360, the best-selling console.
“Smartphones are hurting the market for casual gamers on handheld consoles." - Ted Pollak
The added horsepower of the iPhone 5 (with a dual-core A5) will probably put it on par with the 3DS, though still behind the PS Vita (with its quad-core chip). This will enable publishers like Epic Games, owners of the studio Chair Entertainment that made Infinity Blade, to explore even more powerful titles using the Unreal engine. Gears of War on an iPhone? Epic did say it was possible in two years' time... a year ago. It will be possible to port many titles over from consoles to the new iPhone, if control issues can be resolved. Certainly Chair Entertainment's Donald Mustard would like to see a console in your pocket.
There are also rumors that Apple is planning to release a cost-reduced iPhone 4, perhaps as low as free with a two-year contract. If that turns out to be true, the impact on gaming could be even larger. Such a device, or its likely cousin, the iPod Touch at a reduced price of less than $200, could represent very strong competition to the 3DS this Christmas. Comparing an iPod Touch/iPhone 4 to a 3DS, if the price points are close, it's going to be a tough fight for the 3DS. The 3DS has the advantages of a 3D display (which Nintendo seems to be de-emphasizing), a secondary display and dedicated gaming controls, while the iPod Touch/iPhone 4 has a higher resolution screen and also functions as a music player, a video player, a camera, and has thousands of other uses. We're also starting to see games like the Final Fantasy series, and even Final Fantasy Tactics. That sells for $15.99 on the iPhone, and looks exactly like the PSP version (which, by the way, can now be found for $9.99 or less online).
Developers going mobile
iPhone sales numbers on the order of 9 million units per month will continue to attract development resources from major publishers. The 3DS and the PS Vita will have to show they can put up reasonable sales numbers to attract developers. Since games can sell for 5 to 10 times as much on a handheld console as they do on an iPhone, sales numbers of handheld consoles don't need to be on the same level as an iPhone. In any event, we're likely to see many more iPhone games, and more of them will be graphically impressive.
“Smartphones are not the best game device; gaming is battery intensive and you'll miss your friend's texts and calls, and that's the most important usage for your phone, “ Ted Pollak, Senior Gaming Analyst at Jon Peddie Research, commented to IndustryGamers. “The lack of hard buttons and ergonomic controls means you see fewer pixels, and you want to see the most pixels you can.”
Still, Pollak admits that smartphones are having an effect on handheld consoles. “Smartphones are hurting the market for casual gamers on handheld consoles. There's no need to buy a dedicated device to play a simple game like Brain Age. The handheld consoles must provide a deep and compelling game experience in order to compete,” he added.
The challenge is out there for publishers to see if they can provide experiences on smartphones that begin to approach the game experience possible on a console. As smartphones like the iPhone 5 increase the power level, we may see some interesting examples in the year ahead.
