iPad 3: 'Great Gaming Device'Rumors have been swirling about the next iPad since the iPad 2 was released last year in March. Since the original iPad was released in April of 2010, and the iPad 2 in March of 2011, most observers have looked for the release of a new iPad in the spring of 2012. Naturally, the volume of rumors has increased as we rapidly approach that time. IndustryGamers has sorted through the rumors and talked with analysts about the likely impact of the iPad 3 on gaming.
First, some background. The number of iPads sold has already climbed into the range of the Xbox 360 and the PS3, with over 40 million sold so far. The current sales rate is over 4 million iPads per month, and analysts expect that to continue climbing. By the end of 2012 the Apple iPad will probably surpass the Wii worldwide installed base. The game apps available for the iPad number over 15,000 (not counting running iPhone apps), making games the second most popular category of iPad apps behind books.
Apple continues to dominate the tablet market with somewhere around 75% of the total market, despite the release of numerous different Android tablets. The Kindle Fire seems to be selling strongly (though Amazon is coy about exact numbers) and many analysts believe it (and future versions) will represent a strong challenge to Apple's market share in 2012.
The iPad 3 has had numerous features attributed to it, along with conflicting reports of pricing, release dates, and even multiple screen sizes. The consensus seems to be that the new iPad will feature a 9.7 inch screen (the same size as the iPad 2), but increase the resolution to 2048 x 1536 (doubling it in both directions), resulting in a pixel density close to that of the iPhone 4. Quadrupling the number of pixels means that Apple will have to increase the processor power to prevent the responsiveness of the device from lagging, so expectations are that the iPad 3 will use a quad-core A6 processor to result in even faster graphics processing despite the higher pixel count. Other rumored improvements include better cameras (front and back), better battery life, and the addition of Siri (the voice-activated assistant featured on the iPhone 4S). These features, likely to be introduced at the same $499 price for the basic iPad 2, could have a big impact on the gaming market.
Colin Sebastian, games analyst with RW Baird, agrees. “It's going to be a big year for games on smart devices,” he stated. “Tablets are turning out to be great gaming devices, and I am very surprised there isn't more game development geared specifically for tablets. I think the iPad 3 could help accelerate that trend with higher end specs. Ultimately, we see casual games played in the living room shifting further away from consoles and onto smart TVs and tablets.”
He sees this expansion of gaming in the family room coming from multiple sources. “Both Apple and Google will likely launch their respective app stores on TVs throughout 2012, supplementing what is already available on phones and tablets (which themselves will also become neat controllers, integrating with games played on TVs),” said Sebastian. Though he cautioned, “I think it's also worth noting that core games and franchises with large file sizes such as Call of Duty will take a while longer to make that transition.”
Analyst Ted Pollak with Jon Peddie Research isn't as bullish on the iPad 3's prospects. “Because current HD displays are 1080, the super resolution of the iPad 3 will not benefit them beyond HD. Also the games available from the App Store are currently not competitive with Xbox/PlayStation for core gamers.” Still, he thinks that if Apple could make a more familiar controller available for the iPad, the tablet could have an impact on existing consoles. “If the publishers provide software support on the core level and a standardized controller is introduced, the iPad and other Apple offerings could definitely expand the gaming market and possibly take share from Microsoft and Sony.”
Michael Pachter, analyst for Wedbush Securities, doesn't see the iPad 3 as having a direct impact on the gaming market. “I think more iPads is a good thing for gaming, although I don't think the specs on the iPad 3 will really encourage beefed up apps for a while. Rather, it means more families with multiple iPads, more used iPads for sale at GameStop, more iPads overall.” He sees iPads as a good thing for the existing console market. “I think that if anything, iPads train more people to like games, and proliferation is good for the console market.”
The rumored resolution of the iPad 3 is actually greater than standard 1080p found on an HDTV. Already output from an iPad can be put on an HDTV, either wirelessly via AirPlay or with a cable Apple sells. The processing power of the A6 will likely bring the graphics capability of the iPad 3 near the Xbox 360, which means that porting console titles to the iPad won't require major compromises except perhaps in the control structures. Still, Bluetooth controllers that look much like Xbox or PS3 controllers are already available, though Apple has not released a standard controller of their own.
Perhaps an even greater impact on gaming may come if other rumors are true: Apple may keep the existing iPad 2 in their lineup, but lower the price to $399 or even as low as $299. This would be a strong response to the Kindle Fire's $199 price, and begin to make Sony's PS Vita pricing of $249 look even more expensive than it already does.
What impact do you think the iPad 3 might have on the gaming market?
