GTA V has still yet to be announced officially by Rockstar and Take-Two, but it's only a matter of time. It's highly likely that the game will be a big part of Take-Two's fiscal 2013, meaning that it will ship sometime after April 2012. Gamers have been eagerly awaiting the next installment, and given Rockstar's pedigree, the quality should be there to help fuel big sales.
In an investor note today, Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter said that GTA V should sell at least 18 million, and it could even end up as high as 24 million units, given historical attach rates for the blockbuster franchise.
"We expect the next Grand Theft Auto to sell at least 18 million units, representing a 20% attach rate to the estimated 2011 year-end installed base of PS3 and Xbox 360 in the U.S. and Europe. At this level, we estimate that Grand Theft Auto will generate at least $2.65/share in incremental EPS, making Take-Two’s forecast of 'in excess' of $2.00 per share in earnings during FY:13 easily attainable," he said. "Should the game sell 24 million units (in line with its historical attach rate), we expect contribution of more than $4.00 per share in incremental EPS. Importantly, the company has a history of providing conservative guidance, and without a GTA game in FY:13, we would not expect management to be so bold as to guide to earnings over $2.00."
GTA as a franchise recently passed the 100 million units mark as GTA IV approached 20 million sold.
