Game Industry Predictions for 2012 - David ColeIn our roundup of analyst predictions for 2012, we've already heard from EEDAR's Jesse Divnich and TechSavvy's Scott Steinberg. Our next participant in the series is David Cole of DFC Intelligence. Here are his top five predictions for the coming year.
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A major focus of 2011 was digital delivery of products. At DFC Intelligence we have been strong proponents that digital business models will greatly expand the overall game business. However, we also think the low barriers to entry with pure digital products have created an overcrowded and overhyped market situation. Executing a pure digital strategy can be difficult and furthermore consumers still love a physical product they can hold. So DFC’s major prediction for 2012 is that the theme will be “let’s get physical,” as the industry embraces products that are sold at traditional brick and mortar retailers.
Will MS make any next-gen console announcement?
DFC Forecast 1: 2012 will be the year of hardware. Launches of the Vita and Wii U and continued sales of the 3DS should dominate headlines. As consumers clamor for new hardware, there is also a growing focus on dedicated PC gaming rigs. Products like Battlefield and Call of Duty are starting to see stronger sales on the PC as more consumers have high-end systems that can significantly outperform the current consoles.
DFC Forecast 2: New game system announcements will be thrown into the mix but will lack concrete details. Microsoft is likely to announce plans for a new system but we would not be surprised if they do not give a definitive launch date. Sony may make some noises as well but will probably focus on the Vita and PlayStation 3.
DFC Forecast 3: There is likely to be a shakeout and consolidation among mobile and digital focused providers. The big story here is likely to be failure as the market is being flooded with far more products than current purchase behavior can support.
DFC Forecast 4: DFC thinks that Electronic Arts is well positioned to have a comeback year. EA is currently undervalued when compared with many of the pure digital players. If the new Star Wars game can build long term subscribers, EA will be well positioned to make good its claims that it can go digital.
DFC Forecast 5: The biggest game of all-time, World of Warcraft, will need to reinvent its business model in the face of subscriber declines. Even prior to the launch of EA’s Star Wars MMOG, World of Warcraft usage is starting to show its first major declines. How Blizzard responds to these downturns will be a major indicator of how online products can be managed in their downcycle.
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Come back tomorrow for our final entry in the series, featuring predictions from Billy Pidgeon of M2 Research.
