Modern Warfare 2 never reached the 25% usage level, but it should be noted that the Xbox 360 base has both diversified and grown significantly in the past 18 months. What is most notable is that the usage continued steady between 15-20% a day through the month of November. This was even true as several other products competing for user time were launched in mid-November, most notably Left 4 Dead 2 and Assassin's Creed II.
However, neither Left 4 Dead 2 nor Assassin's Creed II could do anything to derail the Modern Warfare 2 train. Both these games showed decent usage, but nothing that could even touch the level of Modern Warfare 2. Furthermore, it was clear that users of Left 4 Dead 2 and Assassin's Creed II were by and large also players of Modern Warfare 2, but the reverse was not necessarily true. For example, in the U.K. and Germany over 80% of Left 4 Dead 2 users also played Modern Warfare 2, while the number of Modern Warfare 2 users that also played Left 4 Dead 2 was only 13% in the U.K. and 16% in Germany.
These are GamerDNA users of one game that also played the other game at least once on Xbox Live.
Given the overwhelming success of Modern Warfare 2, DFC expects that the title will smash all records. Using GamerDNA data we estimate that the game could have sold as much as 4.2 million units in the U.S. alone. However, it should be noted that this type of success actually breaks the scale of the DFC model and is far outside the norm.
Unfortunately it appears many other November products did not perform as well, including Band Hero, Tony Hawk Ride and the Lego titles. Clearly this shows the dominance of the Xbox 360 as a first-person shooter platform, but it also is another indication of the increasing disparity between the major hits and everything else.
Forecasted U.S. Xbox 360 sales during November:
Forecasts based on usage on Xbox 360 during month of November
1 Comments
December 9, 2009
It would be interesting to see this compared with Raptr users.