Earlier today we spotted this rumor suggesting that Nintendo's looking to launch a Wii 2 with a Blu-ray drive and 1080p graphics late next year. We doubt the reliability of this report, but we do find the idea to be quite interesting, so we pinged two of our favorite analysts for reaction.
Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities, who's constantly talking about a "Wii HD," said, "I don't think it's likely at all. Nintendo will use commodity components, and that one is still too expensive." Jesse Divnich of EEDAR, on the other hand, took the time to contemplate the scenario and gave it some credence.
"An upgraded version of the Wii certainly makes strategic sense for Nintendo. As Wii consumers mature in their gaming experience and desires, there is nowhere within the Nintendo brand of products to migrate to for a higher level gaming experience. With more than 56 million Wii owners worldwide Nintendo has revitalized its brand awareness in the industry and has an enormous footprint; now it needs to begin rolling out the products to keep those consumers active over the longer term and avoid becoming a mere stepping stone for Sony and Microsoft," he told us.
Divnich's commentary continues:
"A Blu-ray enabled Wii makes a lot more sense than the integration of Blu-ray in the Xbox 360, mostly because Nintendo is not competing with Sony in their current target demographic, and vice versa. But this will change with Sony introducing a motion controller in 2010 and the aforementioned need for Nintendo to create a migration path for its maturing consumer base. Still, the rumors of this being the key element of the next generation Wii seem off.
"A Blu-ray/1080p addition to the Wii makes no sense if that's all that's being offered. Publishers will be reluctant to release two physical versions of each game - particularly given the expense of Blu-ray discs. This will lead to a fragmented hardware and software market. The industry is also already facing inventory management issues. Where would retailers get the shelf space for this? Essentially, it literally doubles the shelf-space at retailers for Wii titles. It's the same problem retailer's face today with movie releases in both Blu-ray and DVD format.
"If Nintendo decides to add Blu-ray support, they should be more aggressive and end the current Wii cycle altogether and release their next generation of hardware with backward compatibility support. There are some challenges with that given the current market and price points of competing hardware. If Nintendo decides to create a Wii 2 (with or without Blu-ray) it needs to be in the $249 - $299 range if launched in 2010.
"I certainly don't have a problem with Nintendo ending the Wii cycle. By mid 2010 there will be over 800 games available on the Wii, more than enough to support life on the Wii for the next four years (very similar to how the PS2 was able to sustain life well after the PS3 was introduced). Developers will also continue to release titles for some time given the sheer size of the installed base.
"To capture the maturing Wii consumer however, Nintendo will have to go beyond just Blu-ray. A next generation Wii is going to need better built-in storage capacity, improved online functionality, improved processing and graphics capabilities, backwards compatibility and still be affordable to the mainstream. It's going to be a challenge to deliver at the price point necessary, but if Nintendo plays their cards right, they are certainly capable of achieving it."
4 Comments
October 30, 2009
That rumor didn't hold much water for me. Blu-ray is expensive, Nintendo's shown no inclination to care about movie media in the past, one year seems like too short a time period and I'd be shocked if they offered a trade in voucher for people's old Wii consoles.
November 1, 2009
I think another reason this doesn't have much weight is because Nintendo's disc media, as I recall, spins in the opposite direction of regular CDs and DVDs.
If that is the case, they'd have to make a drive that natively spins in both directions, which could cause the drives to break faster (as they'd have to check both directions for Wii & GCN media), leading to either more repairs or more expensive drives to take that kind of abuse. Add in Blu-ray and a hard drive and you're looking at a Wii Plus around the $400 mark very easily that simply won't sell.
I think, more than technology, the fundamental problem with the Wii is the marketing department being clueless as to how to approach the gamers they had 20 years ago. Those gamers have grown up and moved on to the 360 and the PS3 because the games they want to play are on those systems.
November 1, 2009
That was my comment. For some reason, my name isn't showing up when I log on via Facebook.
November 12, 2009
yea its gon take more than some Blu-ray and 1080p to do the job. case when wii do that ps4 and the next xbox gon comeout with some biger than ever, so Nintendo yall need to come on with it!!! give the people what da wont & need. SO GO Nintendo!!!!! :)