Activision Blizzard launched its much anticipated Call of Duty: Black Ops today, and the response leading up to release has been phenomenal, as GameStop has already confirmed that the title has seen more pre-orders than any other in its history. While there's been some debate about whether the game can top Modern Warfare 2 and Activision itself has been somewhat conservative on estimates, the reviews coming in have been higher than expected, and that's certainly a good sign.
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has now raised his sales estimates for the game as a result.
"Initial reviews for the game have been strong, averaging a score of 90% for the Xbox 360 version (based on 30 reviews) and 89% for the PS3 (14 reviews), according to review aggregator metacritic.com. The early reviews are trending better than we expected (we had expected a review in the mid-to-high 80s.) The strong reviews bode well for sales of the game. Developer Treyarch’s last effort, Call of Duty: World at War in 2008, received an average score of 84%, 10 points below Infinity Ward’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 in 2009. Although a score of 84% for Black Ops would likely not have had a negative impact on sales, the strong early reviews give us confidence that Black Ops sell-in will exceed our estimate of 13 million units, and we believe that sales at the consensus estimate of 15 million units is likely," he said.
"Black Ops should be the best-selling game of 2010. Throughout the year, gamers have tended to forgo spending on marginally-rated games, preferring instead to play free multiplayer for top-rated games (85% or better) such as Modern Warfare 2. We expect Black Ops’ record-breaking pre-sales, strong early reviews, and immense marketing campaign to translate into solid and sustainable sales, unlike competitor Medal of Honor, which had sales that dropped off quickly due to lackluster reviews."
Pachter also once again noted the potential plans to monetize online multiplayer in Call of Duty and also Blizzard's slate of future titles (aside from WoW, that is). Investors are eager to here about more subscription plans because it represents consistent revenue.
"Once the dust settles on Black Ops, we think investors will look next for the company to provide more granular detail about Blizzard and about its plans to monetize multiplayer. These future revenue streams from Black Ops, StarCraft II, and other games should trigger multiple expansion, as investors attribute high value to recurring revenue. The company has thus far been reticent to provide much detail about the Blizzard lineup, which faces a difficult comparison next year," Pachter said.
