IndustryGamers - Informing the Games Industry

Best of E3 Games a 'Solid Predictor' of Sales, says Analyst

Posted June 18, 2009 by James Brightman

Every year the Game Critics Awards announces its “Best of E3” games. While some of you might not care about these awards or what game or company “won” E3, as it turns out the impact a title makes at the annual expo may actually be quite important. Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter (formerly of UBS). The winners of the Game Critics Awards won't be announced until June 23, but according to Schachter it's worth paying attention to the list, as “winners in categories such as 'Best Console Game' and 'Best in Show' have been retail hits in the U.S. (e.g. have sold in excess of 1mm units lifetime since release according to NPD).” 

Schachter analyzed the winners of the awards dating back to 1998. Although there were some exceptions, for the most part, the awards tended to be a “solid predictor” of how well the games would fare on the market. Not all categories were perfect indicators of future success, however. 

“We also found that certain other categories, such as Best Original Game and Best Racing Game, were more 'hit or miss' in terms of success at retail. We believe this is due in some part to these games having qualities that appeal more to industry insiders/game critics on the panel (for example, innovative gameplay and art direction) vs. the average consumer,” Schachter noted. 

Thanks to Broadpoint AmTech for these charts

A full list of nominees for this year's best games of E3 can be perused here. Best of Show nominees include Brutal Legend, Modern Warfare 2, Mass Effect 2, Splinter Cell Conviction, and Uncharted 2: Among Thieves. We believe all of these games have a very good chance of selling quite well, particularly Modern Warfare 2, which Activision has huge expectations for. We would be more hesitant to say that Brutal Legend will top the charts because it's a new, wacky IP that may not have as much appeal as the already established blockbuster franchises. We certainly hope Tim Schafer's latest doesn't suffer the same fate that Psychonauts did at retail.

James Brightman has been covering the games industry since 2003 and has been an avid gamer ever since the days of Atari and Intellivision. He was previously the EIC of GameDaily Biz.