The blockbuster Grand Theft Auto franchise is unquestionably Take-Two's top property. And while the launch of GTA IV set records at the time of its launch (which have since been broken by Modern Warfare 2), no video game property is ever truly immune to franchise fatigue. Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter wonders if GTA has perhaps already peaked.
"...we must raise an even bigger question: has the Grand Theft Auto franchise peaked? Given the strength of GTA IV in 2008, the question may seem misplaced, but our concern is that the very highly rated new GTA content for Xbox as well as PSP and DS did not perform up to expectations in 2009. Now, we very clearly understand that these do not represent 'true' new GTA titles. However, the fact is that these were compelling titles, attractively priced, and reasonably well-promoted, yet they fell relatively flat," Schachter commented. "We do not mean to pour salt on an open wound, but this does raise questions about the strength of TTWO’s crown jewel. It is an issue we will monitor closely (we also note that we expect increased competition in the open-world action genre in 2010 and beyond)."
Schachter also noted that Take-Two's hugely disappointing financial update only reinforces the idea that the publisher can only profit in a GTA release year. "The big problem is not the poor October quarter, or even the weak January guidance ('09 was never going to be TTWO’s year and few investors expected much from it). The bombshell is that 2010 is also going to be unprofitable. Furthermore, even when one excludes a loss of $30-$35 million from the disastrous MLB contract, TTWO will still be unprofitable. That fact is what will cause the most consternation. Given 2010’s solid line-up of TTWO’s top franchises (BioShock 2, Mafia II, Max Payne 3, and Red Dead), many will be left wondering how the company will ever be profitable in a non-GTA year. We share that concern," he said.
While it's possible that GTA V may not exceed GTA IV's amazing sales, we still believe interest in the franchise is quite high. DFC Intelligence recently wrote that Take-Two simply needs to do a better job with DLC content in between major GTA releases; the research firm believes GTA could generate $1 billion annually for Take-Two if handled properly.
4 Comments
December 5, 2009
Meaning no more exclusive DLC.
December 6, 2009
Hey, given the right setting, the GTA style of game can still work. Red Faction Guerrilla followed it, and so does The Saboteur. Given the right tone in story, GTA V can work as well. It just depends on if Rockstar does the "same ol' thing" or not.
December 7, 2009
It's probably a bit dramatic to say that GTA has peaked - if the next full GTA game doesn't develop the same amount of hype as GTA IV, then I'd be concerned if I was Take-Two. Also, if TTWO isn't profitable in 2010, arguably its biggest non-GTA year ever, it really will beg the question, "If not now, when?"
December 8, 2009
I dont think the GTA series has peaked. The exclusives/DLC's were released when the game had lost a little momentum. Im sure from the response to TLAD in terms of sales rockstar thought they had done good, but the players online all agreed they hated much of the gameplay. E.g in deathmatch and team deathmatch if a person knew where the helicopter spawns were they could get it and blow everyone up. Rockstar addressed this by not spawning them in the ballad of gay tony. Many players including me were getting bored of cod4 and waw, so I bought the BoGT to play for 1 week. Then i moved on to MW2. The DLC's were released when many people were getting bored of GTA IV. I think GTA IV is one of the greatest games and many people would agree. on the xbox there were more problems which moved more people away from GTA, like when players had mods. Again rockstar addressed it but within a week of the patch being released modders had already found ways to get around it.
Im sure rockstar have learned if they do have DLC's they need to be relased within the first year. Many people speculated and hoped for a different map, which would have re-ignited the game. Imagine if they had added the San Andreas map to GTA IV. I think they would have helped revive the game.
now all we can do is wait for GTA V and see what happens. GTA IV had many things right