RW Baird analyst Colin Sebastian predicted that Activision's release of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 today will be a blockbuster. “We expect Call of Duty to set a new record for first day sales, surpassing last year’s version of the game, and taking its place in history as a top-five media property, with Avatar, Titanic, Thriller and Black Ops,” said Colin Sebastian, analyst for RW Baird. After sales begin at midnight, Sebastian expects sales of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 to total up to somewhere between 18 and 19 million units before the end of the year, which will mean roughly $1.1 to $1.2 billion at retail. Sebastian pointed out for comparison, that last year Call of Duty: Black Ops exceeded $1 billion at retail last year in Q4, following record day-one sales of 5.6 million units and $360 million in volume.
Sebastian's not expecting all good news from Activision's Q3 earnings. He expects World of Warcraft subscriptions to continue their decline, but the strong sales of CoD: MW3 should offset that. Sebastian is predicting WoW subscriptions will stabilize in the range of 10 to 11 million.
Overall, Sebastian expects October to have been an excellent month for game sales, based on their spot checks with retailers.”We believe new software sales increased 5-10% in October, which is slightly below the consensus estimate. We note that Batman: Arkham City and Battlefield 3 have sold well, helping to offset declines in second tier software. We also believe seven of the top 10 console titles are on the Xbox 360, with two on the PS3 and one for Wii.”
The earnings call for Activision, Tuesday November 8 at 4:30 EST, should reveal more information.
