3D Is 'Mostly Hype,' says Forrester Research

3D has been getting boatloads of attention, especially during this week at CES where major electronics firms are unveiling their new 3D TVs, but while Sony and others would like you to believe that we'll all be playing video games and watching movies in glorious 3D this year, Forrester Research would tell you otherwise. 

Earlier today, Microsoft's Aaron Greenberg said 3D in the living room is "a long ways away," and now James McQuivey, Vice President and Principal Analyst at Forrester Research, has penned an interesting piece for paidContent.org that goes into detail about why it actually will take a long time. He calls the reporting on 3D "mostly hype" and points to the reality that not even a million U.S. homes are likely to watch 3D content in 2010.

"If it took 10 years for HD to go from one home to reach more than half the U.S. population, it will take 3D just as long. Which is an easy bet to make. The real trick is figuring out how long we languish in the low-single-digit millions," McQuivey writes. 

The major obstacles right now include the fact that many, many people just recently upgraded to HDTVs (40 million were bought in the U.S. between 2007-2009) and will not shell out thousands on a 3D set; 3D is only good for a handful of viewing experiences; and of course, the industry itself has to make a huge investment in the technology. McQuivey explains: "First more 3D content has to be created—that means new (expensive) cameras, new satellite uplink infrastructure for live sporting events, and an entirely new cable infrastructure to consume more bandwidth to deliver Full HD 3D content (where each eye sees a unique 1080p 3D image). And if you think consumers are reeling from the effects of a down economy, you don’t want to sit in that meeting where you explain to a fatigued cable network or cable operator that after just completing a massive transition to HD, they now have to go 3DHD. Ouch."

Having said all that, McQuivey does acknowledge that "gaming is the ideal environment for 3D—gameheads stare straight at the screen in immersive gameplay for hours. That’s why gaming will lead in 3D."