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Q: You've stated many times that you're convinced there is a Wii HD coming. What are the incentives you see for Nintendo to actually make such a move? Nintendo can't realistically expect 50 million+ Wii owners to upgrade to another new console can they?
Nintendo can't afford to allow any potential PS3 or Xbox 360 buyer to pass up a Nintendo product in favor of the better graphics and more feature rich gameplay offered by the others. Many commentators continually state that "graphics don't matter." I completely disagree.
If one has a standard definition TV (that's 2/3 of U.S. households and 80% of European households), perhaps they don't care, since the graphics difference isn't quite as striking. However, when a household gets an HDTV, all they think about is HD content. There's a reason why every network has switched to HD programming, and it's not about being charitable.
Once the majority of households have HDTV (this should be year-end 2010 in the U.S. and year-end 2012 in Europe), the majority of households with consoles will begin to appreciate the inferior display offered by Wii games. The gameplay is great, but the experience would be more enjoyable in HD. Further, while Nintendo has its phenomenal first party lineup, third party games tend to be made "for" the Wii, and they're just not as good as the Xbox 360 or PS3 versions. Many games (GTA?) aren't made for the Wii at all. Ultimately, the Wii audience will grow more sophisticated, and will want games like BioShock and GTA, and they won't be offered on a Nintendo platform unless the platform can process content similar to what is offered on a 360 or PS3. That requires a hardware upgrade.
Who knows when? It will happen when Nintendo sees its lead eroding. They're still in first place, and likely will remain there with a $50 price cut. However, once they can make a Wii HD (I prefer Wii Plus) and price competitively with the 360 and PS3, they can legitimately say that nobody should ever buy either competitor device, since they will get all Nintendo first party titles plus comparable quality third party games. Of course, Microsoft will argue (likely successfully) that Xbox Live is a differentiator, and Sony will push Blu-ray, first party and PSN as differentiators. I think that Nintendo MUST do this to remain competitive, and think it's a fall 2010 event, driven by a need to respond to the introduction of Natal and the Sony Wand.
7 Comments
12 months ago
Pachter is crazy. No Wii HD is coming.
None of Nintendo's big hits would benefit from HD. Wii owners who want 360/Ps3 games also have a 360/Ps3. New Wii HD with enough power to play 360/PS3 ports would be costly (for consumers and Nintendo) and split the install base and would still be inferior in number of games made for it and features like Xbox Live or BR.
No Nintendo will do just fine being a complementary system for core gamers and the first choice for the rest of the masses. Many gamers that don't have a Wii will pick one up when the price drops. Nintendo's 1st party stuff is worth playing and after nearly 3 years there's quite a few of those titles. Plus there's a few good 3rd party titles as well.
They'll save HD for the Wii 2. My guess is then Nintendo will have comparable power again because Ms and Sony will be less likely to make the big costly bets on processing power they did this generation because those bets haven't paid off.
12 months ago
You could be right trip1ex, but I can certainly envision the scenario Pachter is talking about too. There are pros and cons to both. The bottom line is Nintendo has seen Wii sales dropping quite a bit this year, especially in the last 5 months (50% decline). They likely will cut the price, and if that helps them out enough then perhaps they don't bother with a Wii HD. Somehow I suspect that the decline they've seen is not just tied to the $249 price though.
12 months ago
I can think of a few Nintendo IPs that would benefit from a HD upgrade: Metroid, Starfox/Starwing and Super Smash Bros. are the first to mind. Not only do Nintendo need to catch up with HD graphics but with DLC as well. Both of Nintendo's rivals have hard drives built into their home consoles and Microsoft are selling aging 360 retail titles through its Games on Demand service. Having already experimented with releasing old titles through Virtual Console, I'd be surprised if the Wii HD doesn't come with a hard drive that is less than 80GB, preferably 120GB, and doesn't sell retail GameCube and Wii titles digitally.
12 months ago
I think the idea that Wii players will grow more 'sophisticated' and suddenly want to play BioShock and GTA (the height of a sophistication) shows that Pachter understands the casual gaming audience about as well as the fact that he is certain Nintendo should focus on HD as their next big feature shows he understands Nintendo.
Casual gamers don't want to play the same game for hours, shoot things, etc., they want a quick fix. Nintendo has made itself strong by innovating, not following what others are doing.
The next Nintendo console may have HD, but I would be quite surprised if that was actually the selling point. I expect that by then, it will be as much of a selling point as the fact that Nintendo plugs into your TV now is.
And for those looking for more 'sophisticated' game experiences, the Wii actually does have several excellent titles already for those core gamers to play when they get bored of their 360's and PS3's, such as RE4, Fire Emblem, Mario, Zelda, No More Heroes, etc...
11 months ago
Pachter, what do you think the traditional video game companies will do faced with the social games business model where virtual items and goods are rapidly growing? Is there a longer term threat from these "video game light" products and services? Regards, Mark
3 months ago
This technology is outstanding. And this will help in design new era of games. seriously. I do agree though with everything else he said. WoW Game Card
2 months ago
a really useful blog I have been here reading for about an hour. I am a newbie and your success is very much an inspiration for me. fat loss
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