Does Natal or Sony Motion have the advantage?

Based on what you've heard from developers/publishers, do you think Project Natal or PlayStation's motion controller will perform better on the market? Can either one successfully bring over people from the Wii audience to consoles that are traditionally more hardcore (360/PS3)?

I think Natal will do better for two reasons:  first, it is likely to be lower cost because less hardware is involved; second, it is likely to be bundled with all new Xbox 360s, ensuring a broader penetration. Keep in mind that Microsoft has another price cut in its pocket, and that the company is not afraid to subsidize something if it deems it important.  I could see a $50 price cut next year, accompanied by an upgrade to the HDD to 250Gb and the inclusion of Natal.  Yes, I said a $249.99 Xbox 360 with a 250Gb hard drive and Natal included.  I don't think that either will bring over a lot of people from the Wii audience, as I think that many would eventually migrate to either an Xbox 360 or a PS3 once they desire more hardcore content.  Of course, Nintendo is going to answer this with a Wii Plus (HD) some time next year, anyway.