Third-Party Exclusives

IG: Does the PS3's current market share and threats from the likes of Bobby Kotick suggest that Wii and Xbox 360 will see more third-party exclusives in the years ahead? 

Pachter: To paraphrase my idol, Dr. Greg Zeschuk, Bobby is just silly.  I don't think you can name the last Activision-Microsoft exclusive (Tony Hawk 3x?), I know that I can't. 

The big publishers have really shunned console exclusives the last several years, with Splinter Cell Conviction the rare exception.  Console economics just don't permit it.  I think that we will only see exclusives if the developer or publisher is paid a hefty sum by the manufacturer.  Sony has around 20 million consoles out there, way too big to ignore.  Microsoft has over 30 million, so a PS3 exclusive is especially costly.  I just don't see the number of third-party exclusives growing, notwithstanding Bobby's comments.